STRATEGY 16 Trend Following & Momentum NIFTY 50 (M5) PROFILE: TREND_RUNNER

🚀 Trend Day Runner (High ADX Expansion)

Riding rare, high-conviction institutional Super-Trend expansion days with ADX >= 28, EMA slope adherence, and extended runner targets.

Win Rate
66.0%
Backtested
Profit Factor
3.42
Net Edge
Min Entry Score
0.68
Quality Gate
Runner Score
0.85
Threshold

🏛️ Institutional SMC Logic & Auction Market Thesis

Approximately 15-20% of trading days develop into non-mean-reverting Super-Trend days characterized by sustained institutional accumulation throughout the session. Fading these days is catastrophic. The Trend Day Runner identifies this regime early and rides runners until 3:15 PM EOD.

Permitted Market Regimes: TREND_DOWN EXPANSION TREND_UP

🔍 Phase 1: 1. Opening Drive Confirmation

Session opens near day extreme (Open == Low or High) with zero mean-reversion into open.

Active Structural Pivot
Super-Trend Drive: Open = Low (09:15) | 20 EMA Support: 24,510.0
M5 Benchmark Level
Risk Geometry (SL)
18.0 - 24.0 Spot Pts
Capped by Max Risk Cap
Composite Entry Score
82.0% Conviction
Quality Gate Passed
Adaptive Scaling Profile
TREND_RUNNER
Dynamic High-Watermark

⚙️ Quantitative Quality Gates & Entry Scoring Filters

The strategy enforces strict fail-fast validation before computing the multi-factor confluence score:

Filter / Quality Gate Condition & Mathematical Threshold Operational Impact & Protection
ADX Extreme Gate ADX >= 28.0 and rising (Mandatory) Ensures true runaway trend state is active
EMA Slope Alignment 20 EMA slope >= 40 degrees Confirms strong directional velocity
VWAP Non-Violation Gate Price has not crossed VWAP since opening hour Confirms one-sided institutional drive
Relative Volume Gate RVOL >= 1.45x sustained across session Proves relentless institutional buying/selling
No Structural Invalidation Higher Highs / Lower Lows sequence fully intact Eliminates choppy multi-direction days

🛑 Risk Geometry & Profit Booking Execution

Stop-Loss Geometry: Trailing 20 EMA on M5 timeframe or prior swing low + 4.0 points. Max risk: 24.0 spot points.
Profit Booking & Scaling: TREND_RUNNER profile: 30% partial at +2.5R, 30% partial at +4.0R, 40% super-runner held until 15:15 IST EOD square-off.
Position Sizing Protocol: Strictly allocated in integer multiples of 65 shares (NIFTY default) or configured LOT_SIZE. Fractional lots are mathematically rounded up/down to preserve exchange execution validity.

🎯 Option Strike & Greeks Architecture

Strike Selection Rule: 1 Strike ITM (Delta ~0.60 - 0.70) to capture maximum point-for-point underlying delta on super-trend days. Tuesday weekly contract.
Weekly Expiry Cycle: Matures on Tuesday (or preponed to Monday if Tuesday is an official NSE exchange holiday). Automated holiday shift handled via ExchangeCalendar.
Codebase Implementation: Class: TrendDayRunnerStrategy
Source File: nifty_expansion_runner/strategies/trend_day_runner.py